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The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK)’s Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies conducted a telephone survey from 6 to 20 May 2025 to gauge citizens’ views on the China-US trade war (Note [1]). The survey found that nearly 40% of the respondents believed that the China-US trade war would ease in the next month, while over 50% felt that the Chinese government had performed better in the trade war, and 40% believed China would eventually win.

The survey indicated that 38.9% of the respondents believed the trade war would ease in the coming month, while 18.7% expected it to intensify, and 35.2% thought that it would remain unchanged. Further analysis by interview date showed that citizens were more optimistic following the Sino-US joint statement on 12 May. A chi-square test revealed a statistically significant difference in the percentage distribution between the two periods. The proportion of respondents who believed the trade war would ease rose from 24.7% before the joint statement to 45.4% afterwards. Conversely, the proportion who expected it to intensify dropped from 23.9% to 16.4%, and those who indicated that there would be no change fell from 42.0% to 32.2%.

Regarding performance in the trade war, 52.9% of the respondents believed China had performed better, only 16.3% thought the US had performed better, and 24.0% indicated that both countries had performed equally. Meanwhile, 42.9% believed China would eventually win the trade war, 18.2% believed the US would win, and 27.2% expected it to end in a draw.

This survey also canvassed respondents’ views on the impact of the China-US trade war on their lives. Among them, 57.2% felt that it had no impact on their own work, while 31.7% reported a negative impact and only 5.2% reported a positive impact. Regarding their daily consumption, 53.9% felt unaffected, 39.2% reported a negative impact and only 3.9% reported a positive impact.

The survey employed a dual-frame sampling design that included both landline and mobile phone numbers. A total of 702 respondents aged 18 or above (landline: 136; mobile: 566) were successfully interviewed, with a response rate of 57.9% (landline: 52.5%; mobile: 59.2%). The sampling error for the sample size of 702 is estimated at plus or minus 3.70 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The data in this survey was weighted based on the probability of the respondents being selected via dual-frame sampling design and relevant age-sex distribution of the population published by the Census and Statistics Department before analysis.

[1]Note : The US imposed an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods on 2 April 2025, while China took countermeasures on 4 April, imposing a 34% tariff on American goods. The US demanded that China lift its countermeasures, threatening further tariffs if it did not comply. However, China did not agree to the request. Consequently, both sides repeatedly imposed additional tariffs on the other party’s goods, reaching the level of 125%. Subsequently, representatives of China and the US held trade negotiations in Switzerland on 6 May and issued a joint statement on 12 May, indicating that the two sides were suspending the additional 24% tariff within the initial 90 days, retaining the additional 10% tariff and cancelling the remaining additional 91% tariffs.